Background
Over the past two decades, the Republic of Turkey has undergone a profound
economic transformation. Combined with an outward oriented trade
policy, the Turkish economy has been pursuing a progressive growth in most
sectors. In spite of certain difficulties, the Turkish economy has
become more resilient to external and domestic fluctuations.
Turkey experienced two major economic crises in November 2000 and February
2001. The cost of these crises and of the subsequent transformation of the
economy was substantial. Public sector's net debt-to-GNP ratio nearly
doubled within a year and the economy experienced its most serious
contraction since the World War II. Economic activity dwindled and
unemployment rose.
As a result of these developments, a new economic reform program was
announced in April 2001, focusing primarily on the banking sector and
financial markets. The overall strategy of the program comprises of three
measures: Reforming the banking sector, ensuring stability in the money
and foreign exchange markets and providing a sustainable growth
environment in macro-economic balances.
The
Reform Process
During the last several years, the Republic of Turkey has been going
through a very comprehensive process of economic reform and restructuring.
With the strong backing of a single party government, the Turkish economy
has gained enormous momentum and endurance especially in the last three
years.
The Government places a particular emphasis on structural reform efforts.
Starting from the financial sector, and with the accelerated privatization
process, sweeping reforms including agriculture and social security,
energy and telecommunication sectors have been successfully carried out by
the Government. These are focused particularly on the reform of the
public sector itself through measures in a number of topics ranging from
public financial management to transparency and good governance.
Macro-economic indicators have been following a positive trend.
Major objectives of the programme, namely, decreasing the inflation to one
digit numbers, providing a higher and more stable economic growth and
realizing structural reforms have been achieved.
The current Government's economic program continues to deal with the
root-causes of Turkey's underlying economic problems. The economic program
focuses on restructuring the financial sector at large and removing the
obstacles for private-sector-led growth.
Thanks to the strict implementation of the program, recovery has now
resumed and the Turkish economy has become much more institutionalized.
Economic agents are now more conscious of the importance of sustaining the
program and the results it can deliver.
Economic Growth
To be more precise, after an average growth of only 2,8 percent for ten
years from 1993 to 2002, Turkey was able to achieve a growth rate of 5,9%
in 2003. Last year’s growth rate was % 9,9, one of the highest in
the world.
Interest rates, which are still high in comparison to most European
countries, have been swiftly shrinking down to record low levels. It
is also worth mentioning that instead of a policy of fiscal expansion and
monetary loosening, growth has been driven mainly by private sector.
Production Capacity
Productivity growth in private manufacturing sector has been around 10
percent on average during the last three years. This has been very
encouraging in terms of sustainable development and competitiveness of the
Turkish economy. It is also noteworthy that industrial and durable goods
now consist a greater portion of the total production capacity of the
Turkish economy.
Monetary Policy
Monetary policies conducted by the Turkish Central Bank, which is in line
with the inflation target, were also crucial in bringing down inflation.
There had been double-digits inflation in Turkey for more than three
decades. The fact that inflation has been brought down despite a
high growth rate is a landmark success. As a result of the strict
economic program, inflation was cut down to single-digits last year.
For 2004, the year-end target of inflation rate was set at 12%, but
realized as 9.32%. Targeting an inflation rate of 8% for this year, the
Turkish Government’s ultimate goal is to further reduce it so as to be
in line with the rest of Europe.
As a further sign of growing self-confidence, Turkey discarded six zeros
from its national currency at the beginning of 2005 and re-introduced low
denomination banknotes and coins.
Fiscal Discipline
These developments owe much to fiscal policy of recent years. Turkey
has been extremely careful with its budget for the last two years.
The budget deficit to GNP ratio peaked to 17% in 2001. Turkey is expected
to complete this year by a budget deficit of around 4,5 – 5%.
Moreover, next year’s budget deficit is planned to be around 2%.
Currently Turkey is in the midst of an IMF-led austerity programme that
relies primarily on fiscal restraint. In this vein, fiscal
discipline was the key policy instrument behind the successful results in
the economy during the last two years. With a very strong fiscal
policy, net public debt to GNP ratio declined to 63,5% at the end of 2004
from 90,5 percent in 2001. The composition of the debt stock has also been
improved and become more resilient to disturbances in interest and
exchange rates.
Reserves
Despite the widening of current account deficit, which has been driven
mainly by the gradual increase of imports, Turkey’s international
reserves have continued to increase steadily as well. Jump in
portfolio and FDI inflows are the key factors behind the strong reserve
position. As of August 2005, the official reserve assets of the
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey have reached almost 43 billion USD,
indicating the strength of the Turkish economy to possible turbulences in
domestic and global markets.
Economic Integration Schemes with International Organizations
Turkey has recently begun to extend its economic ties beyond the more
familiar terrain of the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central
Asia. Turkey's vision for 21st century is to achieve integration
with Europe and become a leading country in its region. Convinced that a
liberal international trade system based on the principles of free
competition, non-discrimination and elimination of barriers to trade are
in the interest of the international community, Turkey’s trade policies
since 1980s have been consistent with this principled stand.
Being one of the leading members of the OECD, Turkey also became a
founding member of the WTO in 1995 and established a Customs Union with
the EU in 1996. Free Trade Agreements have also been signed with
various countries. Turkey conducts most of its foreign trade with EU
and OECD countries.
With the Customs Union, Turkey has lowered its rate of protection and as a
result industrial goods have started to circulate freely between Turkey
and the European Union. With respect to imports from the third countries,
Turkey applies the Common Customs Tariff.
European Integration
Membership to the EU is a process, which has its roots back in late 1950s.
It has been the main pillar of Turkish foreign policy, and consolidated
over the years. Turkey was declared a candidate destined to become a
full member in 1999. Since then, Turkey has undergone a very comprehensive
reform process geared at meeting the membership criteria as stipulated by
the EU. Consequently, based on the recognition by the European
Commission and the Council on 17 December last year to have met
sufficiently the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey was given a firm a date (3
October 2005) to start the accession negotiations.
The start of the accession negotiation on 3 October has opened a new page
in Turkey - EU relations. Now, Turkey is an accession country.
However, economic integration between Turkey and the EU is even more
advanced due to the Customs Union, which has been in force for almost a
decade now. Turkey is the only country to have entered into a Customs
Union with the EU prior to accession. The EU holds a big share in
foreign investment in Turkey. It is also a major trade partner of
the country.
The progress in accession process accompanied by significant structural
reforms in the Turkish economy will appeal to more foreign investors,
which will reflect on the economic relations between Turkey and the EU
positively.
Turkey’s economic contribution to the EU will not only be limited to its
own economic potential but also encompass the strategic geography it is
located in. Turkey is situated on a key location for the increasingly
important energy, transportation, and communication networks that link the
East to Europe. Aiming for leadership in foreign trade in its geography,
Turkey has developed extensive trade relations with the Central Asian,
Black Sea Economic Cooperation and the Economic Cooperation Organization
countries. Turkey will thus be able to contribute both to the EU’s
opening to these markets and to the procurement of raw materials and
inputs that are of vital importance for the European economy.
Foreign Trade
Within the context of globalization, Turkey has been pursuing an
outward-oriented development scheme and export-led growth since 1980. By
virtue of the comprehensive structural adjustment program, among other
measures, restrictions on imports have been lifted, safeguard practices
reduced and foreign exchange transactions liberalized. By abandoning
import substitution policies, Turkey has experienced major developments in
its foreign trade.
On the path of becoming a completely open economy, Turkey has been
searching for new markets and networks within a broader spectrum extending
from the Far East to Latin America. The external trade volume in
2004 was 160 billion dollars, and GNP was 301 billion dollars. This
means that the external trade volume exceeded % 50 percent of the GNP last
year.
As a result of the economic reforms carried out during the last two
decades, both the volume and composition of the Turkish trade have
radically changed. In the process, the volume of Turkish exports has
increased almost 22 times. While only 2.9 billion Dollars worth of
goods were exported in 1980, this figure has grown constantly and reached
the level of 63 billion Dollars in 2004.
This trend seems to be continuing when looked at the following data
announced by the State Statistics Institute of the Republic of Turkey: In
the first eight months of 2005, Turkey’s exports reached 46 billion USD,
whereas the imports moved up to nearly 75 billion USD. These account
to a total foreign trade volume of 121 billion USD for the said
period.
Moreover, while Turkish exports had mainly been composed of agricultural
products in the 1980s, manufactured goods now constitute around 90 percent
of Turkish exports, indicating the structural transformation of the
Turkish economy. Textiles still being the predominant sector, export
products have been diversified to include iron and steel, glass and
ceramic ware, leather and leather products, household appliances and
vehicles and vehicle spare parts.
The main principles of Turkish import policy are the reduction of
bureaucratic procedures, in compliance with GATT94 rules and securing the
supply of raw materials and inter-mediary goods at suitable prices and
certain quality standards.
Foreign Direct Investment
When Turkey is taken as a center and a circle of four-hour flight distance
is drawn, this circle covers one fourth of the world’s GNP and one
fourth of the world’s population. Easy access to these huge markets is
also something that makes Turkey an attractive place for foreign
investors.
In parallel to the political and economic realignments unfolding in the
world, the ongoing privatization program and huge energy and
infrastructure projects have rendered Turkey more attractive to foreign
investors over the recent years. With its dynamic economy, large
internal market, competitive industry and skilled labor force, Turkey
offers numerous opportunities for foreign investors.
A new "Foreign Investment law" was enacted by the Turkish Grand
National Assembly on June 5, 2003. This Law grants equal rights to
foreign investors and abolishes minimum foreign investment capital
requirements, special foreign investment permit requirements, and the
prohibition on purchases of Turkish real estate by foreign individuals and
firms. For instance, it takes now literally just one day to start a
company in Turkey. As a result, there has been a major increase in
the amount of foreign direct investments entering Turkey. For instance,
during the period 1993-2002, the FDI inflow to Turkey on average was about
1 billion dollars, which is very low compared to Turkish foreign trade or
Turkish GNP. In 2003 this figure increased to 1,7 billion, and to
2,6 billion in 2004. It is a striking record that in the first eight
months of 2005, the foreign direct investment entering Turkey amounted to
2.9 billion USD. From 2005 to 2007 we are expecting an inflow of an
average of 5 billion dollars a year.
As part of the liberal trade and investment policies launched after 1980,
a "Free Zones Law" was enacted laying the framework for the
establishment of free trade zones in 1985, thus paving the way for
acceleration of capital inflow and export-oriented investment. Currently,
20 free trade zones are in operation that have attained a total trade
volume of 22.1 billion Dollars in 2004. There is no restriction on
transactions conducted in Turkey's free zones. While entrepreneurs are
exempted from all kinds of taxes including income, corporate and value
added taxes, revenues can be transferred to any country without prior
permission.
For
more information about investing in Turkey, please visit the Investment
Portal of Turkey.
Turkish Investments Abroad
Turkish businessmen have been expanding their investments steadily to the
neighboring and wider regional countries. For instance, they do not
hesitate, even under worst conditions, to do business in such countries as
Afghanistan and Iraq. Traditional and strong engagements of our
businessmen with their counterparts in most Arabic countries pave the way
for easier accession to the Middle East market. Particularly,
Turkish contractors have so far successfully completed over 3000 projects
at international standards, in 63 countries across four continents.
Their total business volume, nearly one third of which is in the Middle
East region, reached 64 billion US Dollars by the end of June 2005.
Privatization
Turkey's privatization efforts have recently gained a significant
momentum. Privatization portfolio includes major state economic
enterprises such as Türk Telekom, State Tobacco, Salt and Alcohol
Enterprises, Turkish Electricity Distribution Company, Turkish Airlines,
iron and steel mills and sugar factories. This process is ongoing.
Privatization in Turkey not only aim to minimize state involvement in
economic activities and to relieve the financial burden of state economic
enterprises on the national budget, but is also geared towards the
development of capital markets and the re-channelling of resources towards
new investments.
Infrastructure Projects in Turkey
Turkey has also embarked on grand infrastructure projects both within and
outside its territory.
The Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) is the most ambitious development
project undertaken by Turkey. It comprises 22 dams, 19 hydroelectric
power plants, and numerous irrigation networks. The overall project will
regulate 28% of Turkey's water potential, generate 27 billion kw/h of
electric energy and irrigate about 17,000 square kilometers of land, thus
increasing the total arable land in Turkey by 50%. It is considered
one of the 9 mega projects in the world.
Taking advantage of its geopolitical position and as an emerging regional
energy terminal, Turkey has also pioneered large-scale energy
transportation projects, through which oil and natural gas exports of the
Caspian Basin will reach the Western markets. These projects have major
long-term implications for both Turkey and Europe. Materialization of
these projects will transform Turkey into a hub of energy transportation
lines in Euroasia.
Human
Resources
Turkey’s biggest asset is its young and well educated human resources.
Turkey, at the same time, is the leading country in Europe in sending
students to overseas, including the USA for higher education. All over the
world it is the fifth in this field. This is expected to contribute
considerably to enhance the human capacity not only of Turkey, but also of
the whole region. A country of 72 million people, which has a per capita
income of USD 4172 as of last year, is a sizeable market for any
multinational company. If we adjust it to GNP by purchasing power
parity per capita income in Turkey, it is close to 8000 US Dollars.
Looking Ahead
Turkey’s recent performance suggests that as long as the public
sector keeps its house in order, private sector is ready and has the
potential to take the lead both in Turkey and all around the globe.
Turkey’s strong macro-economic performance has been a reflection of both
the dynamism of the region and the unlocking of the high potential of its
economy. Turkey has proved that confidence, consistency and
continuity in macro-economic policies are the key to produce better
macro-economic results.
Turkey was able to attain a significant result in a relatively short time
on the economic front. Behind this success rests “confidence”
and “stability”. The Turkish Government has been very consistent in
the implementation of economic policy. It has also been very
transparent and detailed in explaining the essences of the followed
economic policies.
Hence, predictability, transparency and delivering on its commitments
helped Turkey build a huge confidence not only in the domestic market, but
also among foreign business circles. Turkey's message to the outside
world is quite clear: A resolute implementation of the adjustment policies
and structural economic measures are the best way to tackle the
difficulties and usher in a new period of prosperity with social benefits.
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